Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades

Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Past Twenty Years (1986-2005)

5) Two metrics were evaluated to determine trends over the past twenty years. The first metric is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is the maximum sustained wind speed squared at six-hour intervals. ACE represents an approximation of the kinetic energy generated by a tropical cyclone. ACE correlates globally at 0.97 with Emanuel’s PDI index which is the wind speed cubed at six-h...

Explaining Changes in Child Poverty Over the Past Four Decades

Tropical–North Pacific Climate Linkages over the Past Four Centuries*

Analyses of instrumental data demonstrate robust linkages between decadal-scale North Pacific and tropical Indo-Pacific climatic variability. These linkages encompass common regime shifts, including the noteworthy 1976 transition in Pacific climate. However, information on Pacific decadal variability and the tropical high-latitude climate connection is limited prior to the twentieth century. He...

Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by ...

Analysis of tropical storm damage using buffered probability of exceedance

This paper explains the new concept of buffered probability of exceedance (bPOE). Through averaging of data in the tail, bPOE compactly presents probability as well as loss value of the tail and has the capability to revolutionize the concept of risk-averse engineering. bPOE is demonstrated using tropical storm damage along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the USA from 1900 to 2013 (av...